Anticipating Issues

Dynamic issues-focused programming requires a future-oriented vision rather than waiting for the future to unfold. It requires a proactive stance toward change rather than a reactive one. Extension educators skilled at dealing with client-identified issues must learn new skills in how to anticipate issues, a significant change in the program planning process for this grassroots, bottom-up organization.

Anticipatory planning is the process we must learn to position ourselves for issues-focused programming. Central to this process is learning to detect signals of change, and thus the critical issues generated by change. Change seldom occurs unannounced. In fact, most changes are predictable. "There are distinct kinds of change; and these have patterns - with dimensions of direction, magnitude, pace and duration that can be seen and measured."1

Let us examine two types of change - cyclical and structural change-and the signals that distinguish them (see Table 1). Learning to detect the distinct signals of these two types of change will help us assess the critical nature of the issues they generate and determine how to most effectively approach those issues.

A cyclical change, as the name implies, often fluctuates up and down in some pattern, meaning it's temporary. Seasonal changes and crop-growing conditions affected by them are among the most common and regular types of cyclical changes that Extension agents have helped the agricultural community master. A cyclical change is generally quantitative, requiring a temporary or short-term response that has been made before and will be needed in the future when the cycle repeats itself. Other examples of cyclical changes include fluctuating marriage and divorce rates, supply and demand cycles, inflation, changing interest rates, fashion, and fad cycles.

Cyclical changes often present themselves as trends.

Trends rarely continue for long in the same direction and at the same pace. They may go up or they may go down and they may go faster or they may go slower; but seldom do they go on as before.2

This suggests that long-term program initiatives should not be based on issues arising from cyclical changes. Flexibility is the key to dealing with cyclical issues. Cyclical issues require the ability to gear up quickly with an educational response on the upward leg of the cycle, target the problem for impact, and change directions as the cycle declines.

Cyclical changes can sometimes seem permanent, particularly when trends occur for an extended period in the same direction. It's their lack of permanence, however, that affects how we should approach the issues they generate.

During the mid to late '70s, when the nation was experiencing the upward spiral of an inflationary cycle, a buy now/pay later approach to personal money management and farm management education may have seemed appropriate. Many believed the direction of this cyclical change was permanent, only to be caught suddenly by a change in direction of inflation and interest rates.

In dealing with cyclical issues, Extension educators may not be able to predict when the cycle will change directions. However, education directed toward cyclical issues should make clientele aware of the need to prepare to move into, as well as out of, the cycle. Keeping up with changing fashion cycles, for example, can be costly. Teaching consumers to move into and out of fashion cycles on a limited budget is a far greater and more important challenge than simply informing them of the new and latest changes.

Structural changes, in contrast to cyclical changes, are detected by their long-term, permanent, and nonreversible nature. Consequently, critical issues that arise due to structural changes are often quality of life issues requiring new and different educational information and methods. New and different behaviors and attitudes are generally required to successfully adjust to and take advantage of the opportunities inherent in structural changes.

New knowledge, information, products, techniques, and communications and information technology are signals of structural changes. Each structural change makes the future different in some way and brings with it critical new issues. Herein lies the challenge for Extension educators. Ours is the task of delineating those critical issues, predicting how they will make the future different, and preparing ourselves and our clientele to deal effectively with them.

Structural changes don't occur overnight, but their impact over time is major. Dissecting structural changes and detecting the signals of long-term change they'll bring is a critical step in the anticipatory planning process. The current information/knowledge explosion is an example of a structural change. The implications of this structural change for Extension are multifaceted. First, it gives rise to the question of how best to disseminate research-based information and education. It has budget implications. How many dollars should be put into the printed word versus computer programs and/or video programs? Satellite transmission capabilities and the generation of more and more computerized data bases make the home a more viable learning laboratory. How will the use of these new technologies affect the educational roles of county staff? They have the potential of revolutionizing the way we do Extension's business. Our challenge is to use new communications technologies to better meet the needs of our clientele.

Structural changes are the types of changes on which long-term program initiatives should be based. Consider, for example, the fact that increased life expectancy is creating record numbers in the population over 65 years of age. According to the American Association of Retired Persons, this segment of the population will represent 13% of the population by the year 2000 and about 21% by the year 2030. Structural changes like this provide clues on how Extension's resources should be shifted, how we should alter the way we do business, and how and where we deliver education. Can Extension serve as a catalyst to encourage key leaders to develop community-based plans to meet the needs and provide the care for this coming elderly population explosion? How are our educational programs preparing people for a longer life? Financing the later years, planning for housing, and promoting good health through nutrition are all issues that must be dealt with as this tremendous shift in population occurs.

Consider the implication for Cooperative Extension of other structural changes, such as growing urbanization. Traditionally, Extension programs have been directed toward the rural family. As the number of farm families continues to decline, are we reorienting enough of our programming fast enough to broaden our support base and meet the needs of a changing population? According to Warner and Christenson, "Sixty-four percent of the users of Extension live in metropolitan counties (in a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area)."3 Yet they point out, "Extension continues to serve a larger proportion of non-metro residents than it does metro residents (42% versus 23%)."4

The urbanization of America is a structural change with far-reaching implications for Extension. During the first half of this century, agriculture dominated the well-being of rural America. "Today, most rural people do not depend on agriculture and USDA programs as principal sources of employment or income....Around 60% of total farmers' income now come from nonfarm sources."5 What does this structural change say about where our program emphasis should be or how some programs may need to be redirected?

The increasing movement of women into the labor force also has major implications for Extension programs. This structural change is manifest in the majority of all women of working age, including parents, being employed. As a result, women aren't available from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. for educational programs. This suggests that the type of educational needs employed homemakers (men and women) have many differ from those of the traditional homemaker, who wasn't employed outside the home. For example, before-and-after school child care is a major concern to employed parents of young school-age children. The when, where, and how we reach employed homemakers are special challenges generated by this structural change.

To ignore or deny the relevance of these and other structural changes to Extension programming is to bury our heads in the sand and lead Extension towards extinction. To have an impact on these changes through issues programming will require great investments and some redirection of Extension's resources.

The signals of both cyclical and structural changes present short- and long-term challenges and opportunities to Cooperative Extension. With an eye focused on the critical issues each presents, and a willingness to broaden our vision and our mission, we can effectively anticipate change to provide issues-focused programming and create a dynamic future for the Cooperative Extension System.

1. L. Martel, Mastering Change: The Key to Business Success (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986), pp. 11-12.

2. Ibid., p. 20.

3. P. D. Warner and J. S. Christenson, The Cooperative Extension Service: A National Assessment (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1984), p. 61.

4. Ibid., p. 62.

5. M. L. Petrulis, "Effect of U.S. Farm Policy on Rural America," Rural Development Perspectives, I (June 1985), 31-37.