The Coming World Order

Millennium: Winners and Losers in the Coming World Order. Jacques Attali. New York: Times Books, Random House, Inc., 1991. 130 pp. $17.00 hardcover.

With the fall of communism, a victory in the Gulf War, and the chance for democracy in some of the former third world countries, we ought to be able to relax a little. Not according to the author, currently president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. In this disturbing and thought- provoking little book, he asserts that conflict is more likely now that the Cold War is over and that Japan or Europe will likely supplant the United States as the chief economic superpower.

One reason for his claim is that America's industrial productivity is still the strongest in the world, but Japan's is growing three times faster and Europe's is growing twice as fast. Other reasons for Attali's prediction that the United States will be supplanted include its huge trade deficit and the unwillingness of Americans to save as much of their personal income as our competitors. The author sees little hope of reversing these trends because of the reluctance of Americans to fully accept internationalism, our cult of immediate gratification, and our lack of global social solidarity, which all reflect Americans abandoning values they were so universally admired for.

The competition, however, isn't without its problems. Japan's handicaps include distance from markets and limited resources. Europe's problem is effective consolidation of its political and economic potential. Integration of Europe is still in doubt. Attali admits that the "center" of the coming world order may not shift to either Europe or Japan. Instead, the influence may be shared by three among the U.S. for culture, currency, and defense; Japan for finance and industry; and Europe for lifestyle and services.

Attali sees hope for the United States, but only after an enormous change of attitudes among Americans, which must be translated into the political will to make sacrifices. He says that, "The next millenium will be terrible or magnificent depending on our ability to limit our dreams."

In a later section of this short but dense book, Attali focuses on individual lifestyles. He says humanity will be increasingly influenced by "nomadic" objects like the laptop computer and portable cassette players. These objects will "change man's relationship to himself."

People will become more self-sufficient-less dependent on society for basic services. Self-help books and "university extension courses" will continue to proliferate. The implication is that the future of Extension will be guaranteed if it can adapt to future needs and future technology while maintaining its most fundamental value-helping people help themselves.

The problems people will encounter, as individuals and as communities, are global. Globality characterizes such critical issues as wealth and poverty, immigration, development, drugs, disarmament, the environment, the production and marketing of sufficient food and fiber, and quality of life for each citizen of our globe. These issues are all inextricably linked with one another.

This book is useful to Extension staff for several reasons: (1) it provides several scenarios for the immediate future of the world; (2) it emphasizes the importance of citizenship-an understanding of our individual roles in family, community, local and state government, national policies, and global culture; (3) it underscores the consequences of isolationist and naive attitudes, such as "let's take care of our own backyard before we start running around the world"; and (4) it identifies some individual responsibilities and opportunities, however general, in the coming world order.

I highly recommend this book because it will raise pertinent questions as well as raising our consciousness about contemporary issues. The most critical question is yet to be answered. Is this educational model we call Extension oriented toward current issues and future needs? This book can provide an important perspective to Extension professionals at all levels as we try to answer that question.